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After netting nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his strongest opening to a season - he registered 11 strikes in his initial seven matches in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the prize so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

And second, the sluggish beginning his typical competitors for the honor have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

It is not a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the English top division so far this campaign from normal play, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more quality chances to score than every other footballer.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than anyone else in the division, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Opportunity Analysis

That is demonstrated by breaking down the total and standard of scoring situations that footballers have received in the English first division so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to any other player.

This is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

However, what's unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this term. His efforts have had an chance quality metric of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the efforts he's registered at a 27% success ratio.

Regarding attackers registering at minimum ten attempts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the start of last season.

In short, the scoring situations he has had in the current season have been considerably more favorable to score from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so impressively is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last season he had netted ten times - four additional compared to any other player and six more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has registered half as many goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether due to fitness issues - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - extended transfer dramas in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their sides have underperformed (multiple established scorers), Haaland's potential challengers in the contest for the top scorer award have underperformed so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's premier competitions?

That contest is considerably more open at this opening period because two elite attackers have likewise begun in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals correspondingly.

The reality Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the highest xG of the three players despite not attempting any spot-kicks makes him the likely winner.

But since the English and French stars are among the finest goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.